Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Tough Sanctions on Iran Now!

In light of what we learned this week about Iran’s backing of plots to assassinate a foreign ambassador on American soil and a plot to plant a bomb in Washington, we can no longer ignore the threat that Iran poses to peace. However, the question we must ask is the same question we have asked every year for decades. How do we deal with the ticking time bomb of Iran?

The Obama administration must press with all its diplomatic might, and with sober pragmatism, for the kind of stinging economic sanctions that are the best hope to prevent a calamitous chain reaction. And the Administration must deal with several dangers.

The first danger is in Israel, whose leaders have understandably described Iran's nuclear pursuit, along with its ominous rhetoric, as an "existential" threat. Israeli leaders have made it clear that they will not wait forever to take preemptive military action of the sort Israel used successfully when it bombed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981.

The second danger is the potential reaction of many other Middle Eastern nations. Countries like Saudi Arabia, with its majority Arab, Sunni population, could set off an arms race by seeking to develop nuclear programs of their own, in the face of the threat from Iran's Persian, Shiite majority.

Yet another potential explosion, this one more hopeful than fearsome, could shake Iran itself -- the so-called "Green Revolution," a popular push back against the repressive government of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The fuse on this volatile material was lit in response to what was widely perceived as a stolen election that kept Ahmadinejad in power.

Sitting down across the table from Iran is basically off the table. The same must be said, in my view, about military action, at least for now, although the possible use of force must never be fully disavowed.

The clear necessity is for the world community to impose prompt and painful sanctions targeting the Revolutionary Guard and the government, while sparing the general population as much as possible. Clinton, leading this effort, seems to have key allies behind her. But as usual the Russians and Chinese, who have veto power as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, are maddeningly resistant.

Some headway has been made with Russia, which has offered to reprocess Iran's spent nuclear fuel so the nuclear program can actually be what Iran claims it to be: an energy program. But Russia's cooperation has come at a cost. Obama scrapped the planned deployment of a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. And because of Iran, Russia will also have more leverage in talks about strategic nuclear weapons and the proposed enlargement of NATO, which Russia considers its own existential threat.

Even more uncomfortable compromises may be needed to win responsible Chinese behavior on Iran. Recent flare-ups over such sore points as Tibet, Taiwan and China's currency may make this more difficult,.

Critics may decry what has to be surrendered to win international unity behind more meaningful sanctions. But time is not on the side of stability and peace.

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